Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un

I would like to go out on a limb and make a prediction. I begin with a simple question: 

Why has Kim Jong Un of North Korea begun behaving in such a conciliatory fashion?

Three hypotheses leap to mind:

1. All it took was for an American President to have the guts to stand up to the Commie bully and show him that America was not to be trifled with. Donald Trump laid down the law and, realizing that he has no other options, Mr. Kim has decided that it is safer to submit to superior American power.

2. Mr. Kim is uncertain what to do and wishes to meet Mr. Trump face to face to get the measure of the man.

3. Mr. Kim realizes that Mr. Trump is an egotistical fool, easily manipulated, and has developed a strategy to take advantage of Mr. Trump’s weaknesses. His current conciliatory tone is meant to set the stage for the negotiation.

I maintain that the third hypothesis is the most likely explanation for Mr. Kim’s behavior. If so, then his plan will unfold like this:

Step I (already underway): Mr. Kim plays into the role assigned him in the fantasy hypothesis #1. He  convinces Mr. Trump that Mr. Trump has already won the negotiation and that Mr. Kim will dutifully grovel and beg forgiveness when they meet.

Step II: When they meet, Mr. Kim will announce that he is so impressed with Mr. Trump’s diplomatic genius that he, Mr. Kim, wishes to go all the way to a true and complete peace. He offers to denuclearize, which is exactly what Mr. Trump has been demanding. In addition, a final peace treaty legally ending the Korean War will be signed. The USA will remove its troops from South Korea and renounce its defense treaty with South Korea. After all, maintaining a military treaty with South Korea would be a repudiation of the goals of the peace treaty, would it not?

Step IIa: The ball is now in Mr. Trump’s court. He might just be egotistical and foolish enough to accept Mr. Kim’s offer. Doing so would be geopolitically catastrophic; by renouncing our defense treaty with South Korea, he destroys the confidence that any nation would have in the credibility of the USA. After all, if they walk away from a promise they made to the South Koreans, why wouldn’t they do the same with us? South Korea, realizing that it has been thrown under the bus, will re-orient its foreign policy to align itself with China. Japan, realizing that the same fate awaits it, will move in the same direction, but more slowly and carefully. All over the world, countries decide not to rely on American assurances. The diplomatic web that America has spent decades weaving collapses. 

But perhaps Mr. Trump isn’t that stupid. He rejects Mr. Kim’s offer and demand that Mr. Kim unilaterally denuclearize. Mr. Kim, of course, refuses; why should he bow to Mr. Trump’s hot air? The summit meeting breaks down, each side blaming the other for the failure. But Mr. Kim has the better case: he went into the negotiations with an oh-so-conciliatory tone, he said all the right things, and he offered Mr. Trump a genuine peace instead of a half-step. The rest of the world, realizing that America has lost its moral leadership, sides with Mr. Kim.

At this point, if Mr. Trump has any sense at all, he’ll walk away, declaring that those stupid North Korean nukes aren’t a threat anyway. More likely, he’ll launch an attack against North Korean nuclear facilities. China will offer a resolution in the UN Security Council condemning the American attack, and will announce full economic support for North Korea. The Chinese resolution will get enough votes to pass, but the USA will veto it. The UN General Assembly will pass a resolution condemning American aggression against North Korea. More countries edge away from the USA. 

No matter which of these outcomes eventuates, the world will decide that the American century is over and that China is now the world leader. Diplomatic adjustments begin; they will take decades to work out. 

That’s my assessment. Let us see how close my predictions come.