Donald Trump is currently being investigated by Mr. Mueller for the possibility that his campaign team colluded with Russian interference in the American elections of 2016. From what has been learned from other sources, and especially from Mr. Trump’s many tweets, I believe that there was indeed some minor coordination between Trump campaign workers and the Russians. However, I believe that any crimes that were committed were fairly minor in nature and carried out at arm’s length from Mr. Trump.
For me, the first significant piece of evidence is Mr. Trump’s warning that any investigation of his finances would cross a red line. This strikes me as rather like the driver who has been pulled over by the police for a broken tail light blurting “Whatever you do, DON’T look inside the trunk!” On many occasions Mr. Trump has tweeted his denials of any connection with Russia. The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Trump’s financial relationship with Russian individuals and companies goes all the way back to 1987, when he traveled to Russia to investigate the possibility of a hotel deal. He made a more concerted effort to build several properties in Moscow in 1996. This took place immediately after he suffered major setbacks in 1995 and declared losses totaling nearly a billion dollars. It was during this time that, I believe, he made a number of deals the upshot of which was to launder dirty Russian money through Trump real estate, and his operations in Russia have continued ever since. I have no direct evidence of this, but Mr. Trump in early 2017, in response to stories about his Russian financial ties, emphatically denied any financial ties to Russia, tweeting “Russia has never tried to use leverage over me. I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA - NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!” A few months later, Sean Spicer again denied any financial ties to Russia. The fact that Mr. Trump has been so emphatic about denying any connection with Russia strongly suggests to me that his crimes involve Russian finance.
My guess is that Mr. Mueller’s investigation will not find any criminal activity on Mr. Trump’s part with respect to collusion with the Russians during the 2016 electoral campaign. At the same time, I expect that, if that investigation is completed, it will find Mr. Trump guilty of serious financial crimes involving laundering Russian money.