There are now as many theories about how the pandemic will change civilization as there are theories to explain the fall of the Roman Empire—motivation enough to me to dive in. My approach differs from others in that I’m looking far down the road.
First I must define the central term of this essay: “Sinic culture”. This is the broad set of values that originated in China over the last 2,000 years and have spread to a number of other nations. It is most easily identifiable by its strict sense of filial duty. Sons and daughters must obey and honor their parents, and care for them late in life. Another cultural norm of Sinic civilization is the devaluation of females. Sons are celebrated, daughters endured. This, however, is rapidly changing.
There are other unique elements of Sinic culture, but to me its most salient feature is its exaltation of the group over the individual. This is the most profound difference between Sinic civilization and Western civilization, which celebrates and exalts the individual.
There are five nations that embody the Sinic civilization to greater or lesser degree. China, of course, is the heartland of the Sinic civilization, but Taiwan shares many of the same cultural values (albeit a completely different political structure). Singapore is also strongly influenced by Sinic values. Korea and Japan are distinct civilizations, but they have been powerfully influenced by China and have incorporated some of its features.
The subordination of the individual to the group is most striking in the behavior of Japanese soldiers during World War II, who eagerly sacrificed their lives for the good of Japan. The Japanese cry “Banzai!” repeated thrice is not a war cry like “Geronimo!”; it is closer to a declaration like “All for one and one for all!”
All the Sinic societies demonstrate their sanctification of the group in multiple ways. Crime is low in all these societies, and even the organized crime groups (the yakuza in Japan and the triads in China) operate under strict rules of their own design that constrain the violence they perpetrate.
Another expression of Sinic group-centeredness is the readiness with which citizens honor the wishes of the government. Police are little needed and the number of police officers per capita is generally lower than in Western countries. China has 143 police officers per 100,000 citizens; Japan has 234; South Korea has 227, and Taiwan has 272. Singapore is the exception with 713 police officers per 100,000 citizens. By contrast, the USA has 298, France has 340, and Germany has 381.
When the pandemic struck, the Sinic countries quickly swung into action and implemented harsh lockdown conditions. Their citizens dutifully remained in their homes. As a consequence, the Sinic nations suffered fewer deaths than their Western counterparts. As I write this on April 23rd, China has suffered only 4636 deaths; Japan 287; South Korea 240, Singapore 12, and Taiwan only 6. By contrast, the Western nations have performed badly. France has lost 21,340 people to the virus; Germany, 5094, and the USA has an appalling total of 46,784 deaths.
The Sinic nations can rightly claim to have handled the pandemic far more effectively than the Western nations, and they can point to Western individualism as the reason for the West’s failure. They often criticize the selfishness of Westerners.
The success of the Sinic countries in defeating the pandemic, contrasted with the dismal failure of Western countries, will boost the confidence of the Sinic civilization. For nearly 200 years, the Sinic nations have yielded to the material and military superiority of the West, but now they have mastered Western science and technology, and they are enjoying economic growth to match anything in the West.
Thus, the contest between East and West boils down to a conflict over the significance of individualism. This will be the issue that decides which culture ends up dominating the planet. Perhaps the growing wealth of the Sinic nations will generate a stronger sense of individualism among their citizens. Perhaps the greater efficacy of the group-centered Sinic culture will drive it to outperform the West and propel Sinic countries to pinnacles of achievement unreachable in the West.
My hunch is that Western individualism will grow along with wealth in the Sinic countries. Already, we are seeing women in Sinic nations asserting themselves in a decidedly anti-Sinic manner. We are seeing the homogeneity of Sinic populations breaking down into greater diversity. Most strikingly, some of the young people in these countries are actually starting to rebel against the strictures of their societies. This fellow’s hairstyle would have been unthinkable not long ago:
If this is in fact the most likely evolutionary path, I will welcome it. However, Western nationalists should not be too proud—I think it likely that these societies will out-West the West