February 24th, 2022
Few people in the West – or in Russia, for that matter – appreciate the seriousness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Join me on a stroll down the primrose path of geopolitical logic.
If Russia is permitted to get away with this – that is, if Ukraine loses its sovereignty permanently – then the West will have opened the doors to unlimited aggression by both Russia and China. Russia will see no reason why it cannot complete the invasion of the nations in the Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia, etc. Russia will have every reason to restore the Soviet empire. After all, if we let him gobble up Ukraine, why would we try to stop him from taking over the Baltic nations, Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria?
Of course, these nations are part of NATO, and we are sworn to protect them from Russian aggression. But can we really protect the Baltic countries from a Russian invasion? Russian tanks could be in their capitals before the general public is even aware of an attack. How do we respond to such a fait accompli? With modern weapons, a surprise attack is far more devastating than what Hitler did to Poland or what the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor.
Of course, these things won’t happen overnight; Mr. Putin will take his time, taking over one country at a time. But failing to defend Ukraine invites further invasions.
Even worse, though, is the significance of this to China. If China sees that the West will not resist Russian aggression, they will certainly seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan. Indeed, they might well be taking advantage of our crisis with Russia to launch an invasion tomorrow. I rather doubt it, but a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be inevitable if we acquiesce to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Once China has absorbed Taiwan, it will begin asserting itself elsewhere. It will certainly begin to enforce its claims to the entire South China Sea. And who will oppose them? Vietnam will be the first to Finlandize (accept Chinese suzerainty). Then China will take over the Senkaku Islands, a group of unpopulated rocks owned by Japan. China will simply occupy them, daring Japan to resist – which of course Japan will refuse to do because it no longer has confidence in American support. Once Japan has accepted Chinese suzerainty, the Philippines and Indonesia will fall into line. This will free China to begin attacking India in the Himalayas. The territory it will take over is of no strategic value, but symbolically China will have cowed India into a more submissive stance.
In other words, if we abandon the basic principle that borders are inviolable and that aggression will be met forcefully, then we are opening the world up to more aggression. Ultimately, this will lead to the collapse and subjugation of the West.
Conclusion: the invasion of Ukraine poses an existential threat to the West. It is absolutely imperative that it be reversed. We don’t want to start World War III over Ukraine, but we must take every step short of war to force Russia to abandon its aggression.