January 16th, 2026
Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022, a flagrant violation of the United Nations charter, which Russia had signed. This should have brought the whole world down on Russia, but only the Western nations responded. The rest of the world, constituting about half of earth’s population, did nothing.
A few weeks ago, America attacked Venezuela, killing more than a hundred people and abducting its president. America’s opponents condemned the action, many Latin American nations expressed alarm, and that was about all the reaction to this flagrant violation of the United Nations charter.
So it should come as no surprise that, when China annexes Taiwan against the wishes of its people, the world will shrug its shoulders. Perhaps China will invade Taiwan; perhaps it will only strangle it with a blockade; perhaps it will threaten it with a devastating missile barrage. However it accomplishes its goal, there’s no longer any question that China will annex Taiwan before 2030. The world no longer honors the rule of law, and Mr. Trump has made America one of the most important deniers of the rule of law.
What few Americans appreciate is that Chinese annexation of Taiwan will push America into second place in the global ranking of geopolical power. China will immediately turn the tables on us by forbidding TSMC, the only chip manufacturer capable of making the best chips, from exporting anything to the US. America has been doing that to China; the annexation of Taiwan will turn the tables on America and make it the victim of its previous tactic.
The US will eventually develop its own capabilities for advanced chip manufacturing, but China’s action will set the US back in the race to develop AI. But the really important defeats will take place a few years later. China will begin discussions with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and southeast Asian nations along the lines of:
“Nice place you got here. It sure would be a shame if something happened to it... Those Americans used to protect you, but gee, they don’t seem interested in your safety now. Why don’t you dump those losers and accept our generous offer to defend you?”
Having no real choice, all the nations of East Asia would accede to Chinese suzerainty. China wouldn’t invade; they wouldn’t need to. They’d just impose some foreign policy rules. At first these would be easy: vote with China in the United Nations; join Chinese international organizations meant to counter those nasty Western organizations like the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Money Fund; start using the yuan instead of the dollar for international trade. Later on, more strenuous demands would be placed on these nations: whenever possible, purchase goods and services from China instead of the US; eject American military bases and deny port access to American military vessels and eliminate all special treaty arrangements with America.
The US would sputter and rant, but would be unable to anything about the Chinese advances. In a few decades, China will have shown the world that it has replaced America as the leading power in the world. Other nations will increasingly defer to Chinese preferences and reject American initiatives. At some point, the US will be forced to choose between accepting Chinese global dominance and launching World War III. To be honest, I’m not sure that America will accept the former option.