August 5th, 2026
The arguments I have presented so far do not specify WHEN our civilization will collapse; they show only that it will eventually collapse. In this essay, I shall present factors that I consider indicative of the imminence of collapse.
Nuclear Weapons
These provide us with a useful marker for how our civilization has coped with technological change in times past. The initial reaction to nuclear weapons was “Wow, I gotta get me some of THESE!” America devoted resources to rapidly expanding its stockpile, and Russia, the UK, and France all poured money into getting their own nukes. Meanwhile, a number of other countries — Israel, South Africa, China, and a few others — began developing or considering development of their own nuclear weapons.
The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 scared the crap out of everybody. We came terrifyingly close to a nuclear war, and that convinced both the USA and the USSR that measures had to be taken to rein in these weapons. First came a treaty banning atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. Then came the Non-Proliferation Treaty, in which countries promised not to develop nuclear weaponry in return for getting full access to peaceful nuclear technology. Then the two superpowers began negotiating treaties to put safety barriers around the use of nuclear weapons. This process continued through the 1980s and 1990s. But then, starting in 2002, the system began to disintegrate. The USA pulled out of some treaties; the USSR pulled out of others. Negotiations of new treaties failed to progress.
Then we started to encounter problems with proliferation. Pakistan got its own nuclear weapons; India quickly followed. North Korea doggedly pursued its own nuclear weapons program despite facing strong resistance led by the USA, and eventually acquired the technology. They now have an estimated 50 nuclear warheads.
The system constraining nuclear weapons has been weakened in this century; Mr. Trump tore up the only treaty limiting Iranian nuclear weapons, and destroyed confidence by its allies that the USA would use its nuclear weapons to defend them. This has led many of these countries — Germany, Japan, Italy, and possibly a few others — to debate the desirability of developing their own weapons.
After an initial rush, civilization began erecting safeguards to prevent a nuclear war, but those safeguards have been eroding in this century. Humanity has made an effort to protect itself from these weapons, but its efforts have been too limp to provide adequate protection.